We set out a model to compute short-term forecasts of the euro area GDP growth in real time. To allow for forecast evaluation, we construct a real-time dataset that changes for each vintage date and includes the exact information that was available at the time of each forecast. With this dataset...

Practitioners do not always use research findings, sometimes because the research is not always conducted in a manner relevant to real-world practice. This survey seeks to close the gap between research and practice on short-term forecasting in real time. Towards this end, we review the most...

This paper provides a comprehensive framework to analyze business cycle features other than synchronization. We use stationary bootstrap and model-based clustering methods to analyze similarities and differences among the European cycles. We find evidence that the length, deep and shape of...

The purpose of this paper is to study the determinants of equilibrium in the market for daily funds. We use the EONIA panel database which includes daily information on the lending rates applied by contributing commercial banks. The data clearly show an increase in both the time series...