Purpose: This paper aims to explain real exchange rate fluctuations by means of a model including both standard fundamentals and two alternative measures of inflation expectations for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Sweden) over the period January...

This paper develops a theoretical framework which allows for both domestic and external factors in the determination of interest rates. We argue that if capital controls are imposed, or if the risk premium is a function of disequilibria in the money market, domestic factors should also play a...

This paper estimates ordered logit models for bank ratings which include a country index to capture country-specific variation. The empirical findings support the hypothesis that the individual international bank ratings assigned by Fitch Ratings are underpinned by fundamental quantitative...

This paper examines global (mature market) and regional (emerging market) spillovers in local emerging stock markets. Tri-variate VAR-GARCH(1,1)-in-mean models are estimated for 41 emerging market economies (EMEs) in Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East. The models capture a range of...

The paper tests the unbiasedness of interest differentials and term structure as predictors of inflation differentials and inflation changes, respectively, using three-, six- and twelve-month maturities in eight major industrial countries over the period 1981-1992. The first hypothesis requires...

This paper uses Monte Carlo techniques to assess the loss in terms of forecast accuracy which is incurred when the true data generation process (DGP) exhibits parameter instability which is either overlooked or incorrectly modelled. We find that the loss is considerable when a fixed coefficient...

In this paper we first show that it is possible to modify linear real business cycle models to allow for disaggregate (industry-specific) factors in the generation of macroeconomic fluctuations. We then try to determine the relative importance of aggregate and sectoral shocks by doing principal...

This paper argues that Fisher's paradox can be explained away in terms of estimator choice. We analyse by means of Monte Carlo experiments the small sample properties of a large set of estimators (including virtually all available single-equation estimators), and compute the critical values...