For over two decades, the FOMC has included in its policy decisions a statement of bias toward subsequent tightening or easing of policy. This article examines the predictive content of these statements in a Taylor-rule setting, finding that they convey useful information for forecasting changes...

This paper considers transition dynamics associated with a change in the rate of technological progress, using a general equilibrium framework that incorporates stochastic technology growth trends. The model suggests that these dynamics are associated with protracted transition periods,...

General equilibrium models of international fluctuations that assume complete asset markets predict that consumption will be highly correlated across countries, while the data display correlations that are rather low. It has become common to characterize this empirical regularity by noting that...

Two-country applications of equilibrium business cycle methodology have succeeded in matching some key features of international fluctuations. However, discrepancies between theory and data remain. This paper identifies an anomaly related to a basic property of typical models: The prediction of...