Original versions of the included papers were written by an extensive team of authors for the meeting of the Bank Board with experts. The aim of this meeting was to assess the ten-year experience with inflation targeting and to contribute to its improvements in the forthcoming years. Following...

This paper shows how fan charts generated from Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) models can be useful for assessing 1) the forecasting accuracy of central banks’ prediction models and 2) the credibility of stress tests carried out to evaluate financial stability. Using unique data...

We identify a set of "rules of thumb" that characterise economic, financial and structural conditions preceding the onset of banking and currency crises in 36 advanced economies over 1970–2010. We use the Classification and Regression Tree methodology (CART) and its Random Forest (RF)...