We identify a set of "rules of thumb" that characterise economic, financial and structural conditions preceding the onset of banking and currency crises in 36 advanced economies over 1970–2010. We use the Classification and Regression Tree methodology (CART) and its Random Forest (RF)...

We investigate the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic over the 1996-2010 period by employing a time-varying parameters Bayesian vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility. We evaluate whether the response of GDP and the price level to...

This paper uses the credit-friction model developed by Curdia and Woodford, in a series of papers, as the basis for attempting to mimic the behavior of credit spreads in moderate as well as crisis times. We are able to generate movements in representative credit spreads that are, at times, both...

This paper examines the impact of monetary conditions on the risk-taking behaviour of banks in the Czech Republic by analysing the comprehensive credit register of the Czech National Bank. Our duration analysis indicates that expansionary monetary conditions promote risk-taking among banks. At...

Using a panel of 40 EU and OECD countries for the period 1970-2010 we construct an early warning system. The system consists of a discrete and a continuous model. In the discrete model, we collect an extensive database of various types of economic crises called CDEC 40-40 and examine potential...

This paper concentrates on describing the available empirical findings on monetary policy transmission in the Czech Republic. Besides the overall impact of monetary policy on inflation and output, it is useful to study its individual channels, in particular the interest rate channel, the...

This paper examines the effect of non-linearities on density forecasting. It focuses on the relationship between credit markets and the rest of the economy. The possible non-linearity of this relationship is captured by a threshold vector autoregressive model estimated on the US data using...

This paper examines the potential for concurrence of crises in the foreign exchange, stock, and government bond markets as well as identifying asset price misalignments from equilibrium for three Central European countries and the euro area. Concurrence is understood as the joint occurrence of...

This paper asks to what extent the market prices in the future monetary policy decisions of the Czech National Bank (CNB), how this policy predictability has evolved over time, and whether the change in the central bank's forecasting methodology in mid-2002 had any impact. Using a sample up to...

This paper articulates a logical foundation-drawn from disparate literatures-for understanding why safeguarding financial stability is an important economic policy objective. The paper also explains why private aspects of finance provide broader social economic benefits and have the...