Following four years of relative stability at around $105 per barrel, oil prices have declined sharply since June 2014. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the sources of the recent decline in prices, and examines its macroeconomic, financial and policy implications. The recent drop...

Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...

Micro-level empirical research has begun to obtain important results on the effects of currency variations on firms' survival. To date, the literature has lacked detailed analysis of the effects of exchange rates on firms' survival behavior in emerging markets due to a scarcity of firm level...

I quantify the welfare effects of replacing the US capital income tax with higher labor income taxes under international financial integration using a two-country, heterogeneous-agent incomplete markets model calibrated to represent the US and the rest of the world. Short-run and long-run factor...

This paper contributes to the literature by documenting labor income share fluctuations in emerging economies and proposing an explanation for them. We show that emerging markets differ from developed markets in terms of changes in the labor share over the business cycle. Labor share is more...

This paper examines the role of the extensive and intensive margins of work in the context of business cycles in emerging markets with a financial friction. The earlier literature analyzed the role of search frictions with only an extensive margin of work and showed that such a framework can...

This study investigates the implications of risk premium shocks for aggregate fluctuations in a small open economy with financial and informational frictions. A dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium framework is developed, where the informational asymmetries among the agents in the model and...

We test the hypothesis that net foreign asset positions are consistent with external solvency and examine the dynamics of external adjustment using data for 50 countries over the 1970-2006 period. Our analysis adapts Bohn’s (2007) error-correction reaction function approach—which tests for a...

This paper investigates the relationship between the level of inflation and regional price-level convergence utilizing micro-level price data from Turkey during two clearly distinguishable periods of high and low inflation. The results indicate that higher persistence and slower convergence of...

The current account balance is an important indicator of any economy’s performance and it plays several roles in policymakers’ analyses of economic developments. First, its significance comes from the fact that the current account balance, reflecting the saving-investment ratio, is closely...