We develop a new parametric bootstrap-based statistical test for presence of futures price and options-based implied volatility biases. The new test is applicable to data with overlapping prediction horizons. Information on anticipated volatility embedded in options prices is explicitly used...

The classical approach for specifying statistical models with binary dependent variables in econometrics using latent variables or threshold models can leave the model misspecified, resulting in biased and inconsistent estimates as well as erroneous inferences. Furthermore, methods for trying to...