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Brokers and business cycles: Does financial market volatility cause real fluctuations?

Döpke, Jörg; Pierdzioch, Christian - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 1998

This paper elaborates on the link between financial market volatility and real economic activity. Using monthly data … the future stance of the business cycle and on the volatility of industrial production. The results of our empirical … investigation lead us to reject the hypothesis that financial market volatility causes the cycle or real volatility. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009276110

Leading indicators for Euroland's business cycle

Döpke, Jörg - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 1998

The paper investigates a set of possible leading indicators for Euroland's business cycle using aggregated quarterly data. The theoretical plausibility, the behavior at business cycle turning points and the mean leads are analyzed. Furthermore, evidence from cross-correlations and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009276194

Abnehmende Bedeutung der Lagerinvestitionen für den Konjunkturverlauf?

Döpke, Jörg; Langfeldt, Enno - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 1997

With the widespread application of inventory control Systems in industry and trade and a fast growing Services sector the influence of inventory changes on the business sector should become less important over time. However, the empirical eyidence for Germany in the period 1970-1994 shows that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009277724

Stylized facts of Euroland's business cycle

Döpke, Jörg - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 1998

The paper presents some stylized facts of Euroland's business cycle using aggregated data. The main results are: The determination of turning points in Euroland's business cycle is not very sensitive to the detrending method used, although the level of the recent output gap depends on it....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009277738

Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods

Chagny, Odile; Döpke, Jörg - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2001

The paper discusses some widely used methods for estimating output gaps based on aggregated data for the eurozone. Though these methods exhibit some common features, an empirical comparison demonstrates that the various techniques differ substantially. In particular, the correlation of output...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076100

Politics and the Stock Market ; Evidence from Germany

Döpke, Jörg; Pierdzioch, Christian - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2004

We analyze the interaction of stock market movements and politics in Germany. In contrast to the empirical evidence available for the U.S., we do not find that German stock market returns tend to be higher during liberal than during conservative governments. Also in contrast to results for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700518

Real and Financial Integration in Europe ; Evidence for the Accession States and for the Pre-Ins

Buch, Claudia M.; Döpke, Jörg - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 1999

The process of European integration has gained considerable momentum during the past couple of years. This paper provides an assessment of the degree of integration of both the accession states of central and eastern Europe and of the pre-ins for monetary union with respect to Germany. Using...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700641

Macroeconomic Forecasts and the Nature of Economic Shocks in Germany

Döpke, Jörg - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2000

The paper investigates the sources of macroeconomic forecast errors in Germany. The predictions of the so-called "six leading" research institutes are analyzed. The forecast errors are discussed within an aggregate demand/supply scheme. Structural Vector Autoregressive Models are estimated to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005755268

Indikatoren zur Prognose der Investitionen in Deutschland

Döpke, Jörg; Gottschalk, Jan - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 1999

In diesem Papier werden eine Reihe von Frühindikatoren für die Entwicklung der Ausrüstungs-, Wirtschaftsbau- und Wohnungsbauinvestitionen in Deutschland untersucht. Die Indikatoren werden auf Basis theoretischer Erwägungen oder wegen ihres technischen Zusammenhangs zur Investitionstätigkeit...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005818791

Stock Market Dispersion, Sectoral Shocks, and the German Business Cycle

Döpke, Jörg; Pierdzioch, Christian - Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) - 2000

This paper elaborates on the relative importance of sectoral shocks for real economic activity in Germany. Implications of multisectoral real business cycle models are examined by resorting to testing techniques based on stock market returns. The empirical evidence is obtained by calculating...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005818891