This paper analyzes the patterns and determinants of financial integration in East Asia by using the data set of cross-border holdings of financial assets such as equity portfolio, long-term and short-term debt securities, and bank claims. Empirical analysis based on the gravity model of...

To identify the effect of social capital on financial development, we exploit the well-known differences in social capital and trust (Banfield (1958), Putnam (1993)) across different parts of Italy, using microeconomic data on households and firms. In areas of the country with high levels of...

Large-scale financial and macroeconomic shocks directly affect some firms and households and indirectly impact others through general equilibrium spillovers. In this paper, I describe how researchers can estimate spillovers directly using quasi-experimental or experimental variation. I then...

A broad exploratory data analysis is conducted to assess the promise of a kind of model in which long-term asset prices change through time primarily due to consumption related changes in the rate of discount. Aggregate consumption data are used to infer ex-post marginal rates of substitution....

We evaluate the properties of mean reversion and mean aversion in asset prices and returns as commonly characterized in the finance literature. The study is undertaken within a class of well-known dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models and shows that the mean reversion/aversion...

We develop a framework for estimating expected returns---a <i>predictive system</i>---that allows predictors to be imperfectly correlated with the conditional expected return. When predictors are imperfect, the estimated expected return depends on past returns in a manner that hinges on the correlation...

The standard regression approach to modeling return predictability seems too restrictive in one way but too lax in another. A predictive regression models expected returns as an exact linear function of a given set of predictors but does not exploit the likely economic property that innovations...

This paper offers empirical evidence that real exchange rate volatility can have a significant impact on long-term rate of productivity growth, but the effect depends critically on a country's level of financial development. For countries with relatively low levels of financial development,...

Recent cross-country investigations of the role of institutional fundamentals such as the protection of property rights in promoting financial development have extended a literature that has for decades maintained that financial factors can affect real outcomes. In this paper we pursue this new...