We show that the negative impact of financial crises on trade is magnified for destinations with longer time-to-ship. A simple model where exporters react to an increase in the probability of default of importers by increasing their export price and decreasing their export volumes to...

This paper provides an introduction to the special issue “The Crisis in the Euro Area”. We take stock of what the euro area crisis has taught us about monetary integration. At the inception of the euro area in 1999, the main parameters of the theory of monetary integration seemed to have...

This lecture briefly revisits the evidence on the incidence and severity of different varieties of crises within the context of globalization then (pre 1914) and now (1980 to the present), in my earlier work with Barry Eichengreen and in my recent work with Chris Meissner. I then discuss the...

A lot of attention has been directed towards recent financial crises around the world. Empirical studies have found that short-term flows increase financial fragility and increase also the probability of financial crises. This study takes a macro-oriented approach and shows that while large and...

Fragility that periodically erupts into a full-blown financial crisis appears to be an integral feature of market-based financial systems in spite of the emergence of sophisticated risk management tools and regulatory systems. If anything, the increased frequency of modern crises underscores how...

We analyse the links between credit default swap (CDS) and bond spreads and try to determine which one is the leading market in the price discovery process. To do that, we construct a sample of CDS premia and bonds spreads on a generic 5-year bond, for 17 financials and 18 sovereigns. First, we...

The paper develops a financial systemic stress index (FSSI) for Greece. We present a methodology for constructing and evaluating a systemic stress index which: i) adopts the suggestion of Hollo et al. (2012) [Hollo, Kremer, and Duca (2012) “CISS – A ‘Composite Indicator of Systemic...