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Fragility that periodically erupts into a full-blown financial crisis appears to be an integral feature of market-based financial systems in spite of the emergence of sophisticated risk management tools and regulatory systems. If anything, the increased frequency of modern crises underscores how...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012232895
We analyse the links between credit default swap (CDS) and bond spreads and try to determine which one is the leading market in the price discovery process. To do that, we construct a sample of CDS premia and bonds spreads on a generic 5-year bond, for 17 financials and 18 sovereigns. First, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008861800
This paper investigates the asymmetric and nonlinear transmission of financial and energy prices to US five-year financial CDS sector index spreads for the banking, financial services and insurance sectors in the short- and long-run over the recent periods including the world financial crisis....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011149760
as its turning point in 2006:Q2. We also examine various Bayesian and classical time-series models in our forecasting … stochastic general equilibrium models of the housing market, over and above fundamentals, proves crucial in forecasting turning …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008533685
Vector Autoregressive (LBVAR) models. In addition, we also introduce spatial or causality priors to augment the forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005052149
the alternative models. Finally, we forecast out-of sample from April 2009 through March 2010, using the best forecasting … long-run relationships along with short-run dynamics play an important role in forecasting employment. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008784600