We show that the negative impact of financial crises on trade is magnified for destinations with longer time-to-ship. A simple model where exporters react to an increase in the probability of default of importers by increasing their export price and decreasing their export volumes to...

Following the 2007-2009 global recession, economic policy uncertainty and its effect on economic recovery has become an issue of interest in academic, media as well as policy-making circles (Baker et al., 2013). Given this backdrop, we investigate causality between economic policy uncertainty in...

The recent increases in oil prices have raised the importance of studying the effects of oil supply and demand shocks on an economy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the oil supply and demand shocks on the South African economy using a sign restriction-based structural...

We examine dynamic correlations between housing market returns and economic policy uncertainty in the United States. Our findings suggest that correlations are time-varying and sensitive to economic fundamentals and US recessions.

This paper investigates the causality between oil price and economic uncertainty in India. In order to test for this relationship, we collect data on the Brent crude oil price as well as the crude oil ETF volatility index. We also use the policy-related economic uncertainty index as well as the...

The paper develops a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model of the South African economy for the period of 1970:1-2000:4 and forecasts GDP, consumption, investment, short-term and long term interest rates, and the CPI. We find that a tight prior produces relatively more accurate forecasts...

This paper estimates Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models, both spatial and non-spatial (univariate and multivariate), for the twenty largest states of the US economy, using quarterly data over the period 1976:Q1 to 1994:Q4; and then forecasts one-to-four quarters ahead real house price...

The paper uses Gibbs sampling technique to estimate a heteroscedastic Bayesian Vector Error Correction Model (BVECM) of the South African economy for the period 1970:1-2000:4, and then forecast GDP, consumption, investment, short and long term interest rates, and the CPI over the period of...