We show that the negative impact of financial crises on trade is magnified for destinations with longer time-to-ship. A simple model where exporters react to an increase in the probability of default of importers by increasing their export price and decreasing their export volumes to...

A fast-growing literature on small open economy models with pecuniary external- ities has provided the theoretical grounds for the policy analysis of macro-prudential regulations and bailouts. Benigno, Chen, Otrok, Rebucci, and Young (2012a) recently showed that the macro-prudential regulations...

Fragility that periodically erupts into a full-blown financial crisis appears to be an integral feature of market-based financial systems in spite of the emergence of sophisticated risk management tools and regulatory systems. If anything, the increased frequency of modern crises underscores how...

We analyse the links between credit default swap (CDS) and bond spreads and try to determine which one is the leading market in the price discovery process. To do that, we construct a sample of CDS premia and bonds spreads on a generic 5-year bond, for 17 financials and 18 sovereigns. First, we...

This note provides an example of a case where …nancial instability can be ampli…ed by stable fundamentals rather than risky fundamentals, using a variation of Diamond and Rajan (2009). Paper type – Research paper

This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model that explicitly includes a banking sector engaged in a maturity mismatch. We demonstrate that rational competitive banks take on excessive risks systemically, resulting in overleverage and ine¢ ciently high crisis probabilities. The model...