For the period 1860 to 1939, the simple correlation of the U.S. commercial paper rate with the contemporaneous inflation rate is -.17. The corresponding correlation for the period 1950 to 1979 is .71. Inflation evolved from essentially a white noise process in the pre-World War I years to a...

We evaluate the endogenous growth hypothesis using sectoral data for South Korea and Taiwan. Our empirical work relies on a direct measure of the variety of products from each sector which can serve as intermediate inputs or as final goods. We test whether changes in the variety of these inputs,...

We develop a procedure to rank-order countries and commodities using dis-aggregated American imports data. We find strong evidence that both countries and commodities can be ranked, consistent with the product cycle' hypothesis. Countries habitually begin to export goods to the United States...

The recent literature on quid pro quo foreign direct investment (FDI) suggests that FDI may be induced by the threat of protection, and further, that FDI may be used as an instrument to defuse a protectionist threat. This paper uses a panel data set of 4-digit SIC level observations of Japanese...

In this paper we examine how to account for growth when new inputs are being created. In particular, we obtain a decomposition of growth into that due to a higher quantity of existing inputs, and that due to a greater range of inputs. This decomposition is first obtained for a single firm, with...

Large long-run swings in the United States stock market over the past century correspond to swings in estimates of fundamental values calculated by using a long moving average of past dividend growth to forecast future growth rates. Such a procedure would have been reasonable if investors were...