This paper studies sharp reductions in current account deficits and large exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. It finds...

Since the establishment in 1979 of the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the EMS a number of countries, after entry, have experienced a substantial and persistent rise in their real exchange rate (the ratio of domestic to foreign prices). This paper explains this phenomenon in terms of a `peso problem'...

A number of developing countries have run large and persistent current account deficits in both the late-1970s/early-1980s and in the early-1990s, raising the issue of whether these persistent imbalances are sustainable. This paper puts forward a notion of current account sustainability and...