This paper tests empirically the Balassa-Samuelson (BS) hypothesis using annual data for 6 Asian countries. We apply new panel data cointegration techniques recently developed by Pedroni (2000) and we compare the results with those obtained with conventional Johansen (1995)’s time series...

The purpose of this paper is to study the equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) in 5 CEE transition economies, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. In so doing, we combine the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) approach developed by Williamson (1994) with...

This paper examines the determinants of the real effective exchange rate (REER) in Brazil, from 1994 to 2003. Building on a standard theoretical model and based on the Johansen cointegration estimation, the main finding is that much of the long-run behavior of the REER can be explained by...

This paper sets out to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. A theoretical model is developed that provides an explanation for the appreciation of the real exchange rate based on tradable prices in the acceding countries. Our...

Real exchange rates appear to present a specific behaviour in the early phase of transition: they are largely unaffected by nominal exchange rate movements and exhibit trend appreciation. The model presented here describes the transition process as the emergence of two new (traded and non-traded...

The results of this paper complement the recent findings of real exchange rates as stationary processes. The standard procedure of applying a battery of unit root tests can be problematic since the tests are sensitive to the specifics of the time-series process. The novelty of the approach we...

This paper studies sharp reductions in current account deficits and large exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. It finds...

We propose that analysis of purchasing power parity (PPP) and the law of one price (LOOP) should explicitly take into account the possibility of ‘commodity points’ – thresholds delineating a region of no central tendency among relative prices, possibly due to lack of perfect arbitrage in...

We fit nonlinearly mean-reverting models to real dollar exchange rates over the post-Bretton Woods period, consistent with a theoretical literature on transaction costs in international arbitrage. The half lives of real exchange rate shocks, calculated through Monte Carlo integration, imply...

In this Paper we assess the progress made by the profession in understanding whether and how exchange rate intervention works. To this end, we review the theory and evidence on official intervention, concentrating primarily on work published within the last decade or so. Our reading of the...