Between 1995 and 2005, the German economy has experienced a phase of weak economic growth. We analyze whether this weak growth performance can be attributed to the stance of monetary conditions during that period. We show that the real effective exchange rate did have almost no dampening effects...

Since the establishment in 1979 of the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the EMS a number of countries, after entry, have experienced a substantial and persistent rise in their real exchange rate (the ratio of domestic to foreign prices). This paper explains this phenomenon in terms of a `peso problem'...

This paper addresses the issue of the transition from Stage Two of EMU to Stage Three. The criteria established in the Maastricht Treaty for this transition include an ERM qualification. Under this criterion a participating country would have had to maintain its position in the normal bands of...

We apply Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory to the analysis of long- run equilibrium in the foreign exchange market. We study the case of Portugal vis-à-vis Germany and Spain, and the case of Spain vis-à-vis Germany, in the period 1960-1990. The empirical analysis was based on unit-root...

This study re-examines the validity of relationship between Singapore Dollar-US Dollar exchange rate and the relative price using the latest econometric methodologies that accounts for non-linearity. Among others, this study finds Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive (ESTAR)- type...

This paper explores the conflict of real and monetary convergence during the EMU run-up of the Central and Eastern European new EU member states. Based on a Balassa-Samuelson model of productivity driven inflation, it finds a high probability of higher inflation in the new member states. It...

This paper provides evidence of short-run predictability for the real exchange rate by performing out-of-sample tests of a forecasting equation which is derived from a consumption-based asset pricing model. In this model, the real exchange rate is predictable as a result of the implications of...

Standard present-value models suggest that exchange rates are driven by expected future fundamentals, implying that exchange rates contain information about future fundamentals. We test this key empirical prediction of present-value models in a sample of 35 currency pairs ranging from 1900 to...

This paper analyzes disparities among nominal and real exchange rate movements across the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries from 1991 to 1996. The method of analyzing such processes is to examine whether the differentials of exchange rate changes converge or diverge over time....

In this paper the interest rate-exchange rate nexus and the effectiveness of interest rate defence are investigated theoretically and empirically. We construct a simple theoretical model by incorporating Taylor rule in the model proposed by Jeanne and Rose (2002). Mixing the macroeconomic theory...