We examine the expected survival time of a unilateral exchange rate target zone, when constraints on monetary policy prevent the central bank from exclusively focusing on defending the target zone. In general, the width of the target zone has a negligible effect on the expected survival time,...

In the new situation with flexible exchange rates, monetary policy in Europe will have to rely more on indicators than previously under fixed rates. One of the potential indicators, the forward interest rate curve, can be used to indicate market expectations of the time-paths of future short...

The paper argues that real world fixed exchange rate regimes usually have finite bands instead of completely fixed exchange rates between realignments because exchange rate bands, contrary to the textbook result, give central banks some monetary independence even with free international capital...

Realignment expectations which measure exchange rate credibility are analysed for European exchange rates using daily financial data since the inception of the EMS. It is difficult to find economically meaningful relationships between realignment expectations and macroeconomic variables,...

The use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator is demonstrated, using Sweden between 1992 and 1994 as an example. The forward rates are interpreted as indicating market expectations of the time-path of future interest rates, future inflation rates, and future currency...

An empirical model of time-varying realignment in an exchange rate target zone is developed. Expected rates of devaluation are estimated as the difference between interest rate differentials and estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band, using French...

The paper examines the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in an open economy with and without a binding zero bound on nominal interest rates. In particular, a foolproof way of escaping from a liquidity trap is suggested, consisting of a price-level target path, a devaluation of the...

An independent central bank can manage its balance sheet and its capital so as to commit itself to a depreciation of its currency and an exchange-rate peg. This way, the central bank can implement the optimal escape from a liquidity trap, which involves a commitment to higher future inflation....

This paper discusses what we have learned from last year's currency crises in the ERM and Nordic countries about fixed exchange rates as a means to achieve price stability. After discussing the explanations for the crises, the paper concludes that fixed exchange rates are not a short cut to...

The paper presents estimates of devaluation expectations for six EMS currencies relative to the Deutschmark, for the period March 1979 - May 1990. The estimation method is simple and operational, and consistently generates sensible results. The estimates are constructed by adjusting interest...