A sizeable literature examines exchange rate pass-through to disaggregated import prices but very few micro-studies focus on consumer prices. This paper explores exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in South Africa during 2002-2007, using a unique data set of highly disaggregated data...

The impact of fiscal stimulus depends not only on short-term tax and spending policies, but also on expectations about offsetting measures in the future. This paper analyzes the effects of an increase in government spending under a plausible debt-stabilizing policy that systematically reduces...

Many recent papers suggest that the basic flex-price target zone model does not perform well empirically. This paper derives some of the testable implications of a sticky-price target zone model in order to determine whether the assumption of perfect price flexibility explains the empirical...

The desire to avoid speculative runs on currencies appears to be one of the main reasons leading policy-makers to impose currency bands, but the standard analysis of target zones rules out any speculative inefficiencies by assumption. As an alternative we first present simple models of excess...

We use a dynamic factor model to provide a semi-structural representation for 101 quarterly US macroeconomic series. We find that (i) the US economy is well described by a number of structural shocks between two and six. Focusing on the four-shock specification, we identify, using sign...

The paper argues that real world fixed exchange rate regimes usually have finite bands instead of completely fixed exchange rates between realignments because exchange rate bands, contrary to the textbook result, give central banks some monetary independence even with free international capital...

Using Krugman's (1991) target zone model, we find an explicit, sub-game perfect solution for a central bank wishing to stabilize the exchange rate given proportional costs of intervention. We demonstrate, however, that precommitment to narrower bands would yield a welfare gain - which provides a...

In credible target zone regimes, exchange rates should, according to Krugman's 1991 theory, spend a disproportionate amount of time near the edges of the fluctuation band. The major application of this theory has been to the European Monetary System (EMS), with several authors reporting that...

We examine the effects of endogenously determined realignment expectations in a model of a target zone with sluggish price adjustment. We allow these expectations to be based on a policy rule which attaches differing weights to output and price stability. We find that for realistic parameter...

This Paper reviews the controversy over China’s exchange rate regime. Placing the issue in the context of the literature on exit strategies, it argues that now is the best time for China to exit from its peg. Moving to a managed float would be in the country’s own interest; it would help the...