Showing 131 - 140 of 980
An application of Bayesian Model Averaging, BMA, is implemented to construct combined forecasts for the colombian inflation for the short and medium run. A model selection algorithm is applied over a set of linear models with a large dataset of potencial predictors using marginal as well as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008465232
An application of Bayesian Model Averaging, BMA, is implemented to construct combined forecasts for the colombian inflation for the short and medium run. A model selection algorithm is applied over a set of linear models with a large dataset of potencial predictors using marginal as well as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008465233
This paper analyzes the impact of terms of trade and risk-premium shocks on a small open economy in an intertemporal, Dutch disease model, with international capital mobility. It is shown that when the economy experiences a permanent improvement in the terms of trade, the Dutch disease effect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504657
Since the establishment in 1979 of the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the EMS a number of countries, after entry, have experienced a substantial and persistent rise in their real exchange rate (the ratio of domestic to foreign prices). This paper explains this phenomenon in terms of a `peso problem'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497704
This Paper constructs a general equilibrium trade model of a small open economy producing an exported good, an imported good and a non-traded good by using two or more factors of production, one of which, namely capital, is imperfectly internationally mobile. Within this framework, it is shown...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498144
The impact of fiscal stimulus depends not only on short-term tax and spending policies, but also on expectations about offsetting measures in the future. This paper analyzes the effects of an increase in government spending under a plausible debt-stabilizing policy that systematically reduces...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004976796
National borders, including the easily crossed US-Canada border, have been shown to separate markets and sustain price differences. The resulting arbitrage opportunities vary temporally with the exchange rate and cross-sectionally with travelers' distance to the border. We estimate a structural...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083500
This paper is structured in three parts. The first part outlines the methodological steps, involving both theoretical and empirical work, for assessing whether an observed allocation of resources across countries is efficient. The second part applies the methodology to the long-run allocation of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083981
In terms of macroeconomic performance, the Eurozone’s first decade is a story of successful inflation-targeting by the ECB for the common currency area as a whole combined with the persistence of real exchange rate and current account disequilibria at member country level. According to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084267
In response to the global financial crisis a new policy paradigm emerged in which capital controls and other quantitative restrictions on credit flows have become part of the standard crisis prevention policy toolkit. A new strand of theoretical literature studies the use of capital controls in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084510