We aim at investigating how two different types of central bank communication affect the private inflation expectations formation process. The effects of ECB inflation projections and Governing Council members’ speeches on private inflation forecasts are identified through an...

Focusing on a set of central banks that publish their internal macroeconomic forecasts in real time enables one to shed light on the expectations channel of monetary policy. The main contribution of this paper is to assess whether central bank forecasts influence private forecasts. The response...

Policymakers at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) publish macroeconomic forecasts since 1979. Some studies find that these forecasts do not contain useful information to predict these macroeconomic variables compared to other forecasts. In this paper, we examine the value of publishing...

In this paper we study the effect of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices. While most of the literature has found that expansionary shocks have a positive effect on aggregate price indices, we study the effect on individual prices of a sample of four commodities. This set of commodity...

This work analyzes the relationship between real interest rates and commodity prices. According to Frankel´s hypothesis (1986-2006): low real interest rates lead to high real commodity prices". However, some empirical evidence suggests that commodity prices can predict monetary policy. In this...

This paper is dedicated at reconsidering objectives and instruments of monetary policy and also at redefining a policy mix in an economy which is systematically confronted to imbalances due to changes in technology, in the composition of demand or in the distribution of income, It is motivated...

The effects of the current crisis on the level of output, and consequently on unemployment and poverty, are likely to be deep and long lasting; they should not be underestimated, especially now that some timid signs of recovery are appearing. The crisis was triggered by the US financial sector,...

After decades using monetary aggregates as the main instrument of monetary policy and having different varieties of crawling peg exchange rate regimes, Colombia adopted a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime in 1999, with inflation as the nominal anchor, a floating exchange rate, and the...

The literature on inflation targeting has up to now focused on its impact on macroeconomic performance or private expectations. In contrast, this paper proposes to investigate empirically whether the institutional adoption of this framework has changed the policy preferences of the central...

In this document we lay out the microeconomic foundations of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model designed to forecast and to advice monetary policy authorities in Colombia. The model is called Policy Analysis Tool Applied to Colombian Needs (PATACON). In companion documents we present...