This paper provides evidence of long run purchasing power parity by performing a recently developed method to test for unit roots in the presence of structural breaks. Data consist of real exchange rate series for 20 countries including developed and developing economies. Structural breaks are...

As a natural extension to León and Vivas (2010) and León and Reveiz (2010) this paper briefly describes the Cholesky method for simulating Geometric Brownian Motion processes with long-term dependence, also referred as Fractional Geometric Brownian Motion (FBM). Results show that this method...

Three methodologies of estimation of models with many predictors are implemented to forecast Colombian inflation. Two factor models, based on principal components, and partial least squares, as well as a Bayesian regression, known as Ridge regression are estimated. The methodologies are compared...

An application of Bayesian Model Averaging, BMA, is implemented to construct combined forecasts for the colombian inflation for the short and medium run. A model selection algorithm is applied over a set of linear models with a large dataset of potencial predictors using marginal as well as...

An application of Bayesian Model Averaging, BMA, is implemented to construct combined forecasts for the colombian inflation for the short and medium run. A model selection algorithm is applied over a set of linear models with a large dataset of potencial predictors using marginal as well as...

An application of Bayesian Model Averaging, BMA, is implemented to construct combined forecasts for the colombian inflation for the short and medium run. A model selection algorithm is applied over a set of linear models with a large dataset of potencial predictors using marginal as well as...

The effects of the Pension Fund Managers (PFMs) behavior on the foreign exchange market may be important, given the increasing size of their portfolio and their possible market power. Some authors argue that when big investors like PFMs trade large volumes in the foreign exchange market, they...

The role of the exchange rate and the exchange rate regime in the monetary policy decision-making process in Colombia is described. The rationale for the intervention of the Central Bank in the FX market is explained and the experience in this regard is reviewed. Special attention is given to...

This research studies the forecasting performance of conventional and more recent exchange rate models in Colombia. The purpose is to explain which have been the main exchange rate determinants under an Inflation Targeting regime and a completely floating exchange rate scheme. Compared to...

This paper explores the relationship between central bank independence and inflation in Latin America, using as a case study the experience of Colombia (1923-2008). Since its creation, in 1923, Colombia´s central bank has undergone several reforms that have changed its objectives and degree of...