DOMESTIC MARKETS AND INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS This paper develops a theoretical and empirical model to analyze the effects of the size and nature of domestic markets on the international competitiveness of national industries. We validate our theory using data on the more than 20,000 plants...

This paper is concerned with two issues. First, it discusses some of the main problems and inferences the methodological approach of critical realism raises for empirical work in economics, while considering an approach adopted to try to overcome these problems. Second, it provides a concrete...

This work considers effects of energy market liberalisation in the countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU). Our analysis is based on a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model called the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). This specialised model makes it possible to evaluate effects in a...

The Asian crisis was the third financial crisis of the 1990s. Even more than its predecessors it raised questions about the international community’s approach to crisis prevention and crisis management. It led reservations to be voiced, and not only in Asia, about full and unfettered...

Credit risk models like Moody’s KMV are now well established in the market and give bond managers reliable estimates of default probabilities for individual firms. Until now it has been hard to relate those probabilities to the actual credit spreads observed on the market for corporate bonds....

Efforts to simulate turbulence in the financial markets include experiments with the logistic equation: x(t)=kappa x(t-1)[1-x(t-1)], with 0 x(t)1 and 0 = kappa 4. Visual investigation of the logistic equation show the various stability and instability regimes for the various value of the...

In this paper, I analyze recent findings by Coe and Helpman (1995) of trade-related international R&D spillovers. I show generally that randomly created bilateral trade shares also give rise to large estimated international R&D spillovers; often, in fact, to larger estimated spillover effects...

In this paper we investigate the so called foresight bias that may appear in the Monte-Carlo pricing of Bermudan and compound options if the exercise criteria is calculated by the same Monte-Carlo simulation as the exercise values. The standard approach to remove the foresight bias is to use two...

We propose a structural credit risk model for consumer lending using option theory and the concept of the value of the consumer’s reputation. Using Brazilian empirical data and a credit bureau score as proxy for creditworthiness we compare a number of alternative models before suggesting one...

In this paper we apply a simple macro model to explore and evaluate certain optimal monetary policy rules for China's economy. To be more consistent with the central bank (the People's Bank of China)'s behaviour, we use money supply as a monetary policy instrument rather than the commonly used...