In this paper we explore the price setting behavior of Colombian producers and importersusing a unique database containing the monthly price reports underlying the ColombianPPI from Jun-1999 to Oct-2006. We focus on five particular questions: 1. Are pricessticky or flexible? 2. Is a price...

The objective of this paper is to analyze how international cycles affect the real GDPcycle and so monetary policy decisions in Colombia. We estimate that cycles in worldGDP, export prices and capital inflows are strongly associated with the Colombianbusiness cycle both on impact and even during...

In this document we lay out the microeconomic foundations of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model designed to forecast and to advice monetary policy authorities in Colombia. The model is called Policy Analysis Tool Applied to Colombian Needs (PATACON). In companion documents we present...

This paper analyses the effects of sterilised, intraday foreign exchange market operations (non-discretionary and discretionary) on foreign exchange returns and volatility in four inflation targeting economies in Latin America. The distribution of exchange rates during intervention and...

In order to asses the credibility of their targets and policies, in-°ation targeting central banks always keep an eye on market expectations ofthe future in°ation rates and short maturity interest rates. In economies withdeveloped ¯nancial markets the prices of ¯nancial assets are a prime...

There is now an impetus to apply dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models to forecasting. But thesemodels typically rely on purpose-built data, for example on tradable and nontradable sector outputs.How then do we know that the model will forecast well, in advance? We develop an early...

If theory-consistent models can ever hope to forecast well and to be useful for policy, theyhave to relate to data which though rich in information is uncertain, unbalanced and sometimes forecastsfrom external sources about the future path of other variables. One example from many is financial...