A dynamic linear model for data revisions and delays is proposed. This model extends Jacobs & Van Norden's [13] in two ways. First, the "true" data series is observable up to a fixed period of time M. And second, preliminary figures might be biased estimates of the true series. Otherwise, the...

Preliminary and delayed Colombian GDP reports are replaced with optimal in-sample now-casts of true" GDP figures derived from a model for data revisions. The new GDP time series is augmented with optimal out-of-sample forecasts and back-casts of the "true" GDP figures derived from the same...

En este documento se estima un modelo econométrico que descompone la seriede inflación trimestral anualizada entre un componente transitorio y otropermanente, este último inducido probablemente por las variaciones en la metadel Banco Central. Se concluye que la persistencia inflacionaria se...

En este documento se evalúan las diferentes formas de medición de la persistencia estadística y los distintos factores estructurales que podrían explicarla. Se presenta una medición de la persistencia estadística de la inflación y de la brecha de inflación en Colombia para el período...

In this paper, we modelled the Colombian long run per capita economic growth (1925- 2005) using a Markov switching regime model with both fixed (FTP) and time-varying transition probabilities (TVTP) to explain regime changes in the economic growth. We found evidence of non-linearity in the per...

A partir del debate sobre la respuesta de política a fluctuaciones en los precios de losactivos, en el presente documento se estudia la importancia de estos precios en elcontexto de una economía emergente como la colombiana, caracterizada por ungrado variable de represión financiera y...

La "sabiduría convencional" afirma que los temas de crecimiento económico se entienden con modelos clásicos, y los de corto plazo (ciclos, etc.) con los keynesianos (o neo-keynesianos). Y, en efecto, la rigidez de precios (de productos o factores) es una característica de la explicación...

After decades using monetary aggregates as the main instrument of monetary policy and having different varieties of crawling peg exchange rate regimes, Colombia adopted a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime in 1999, with inflation as the nominal anchor, a floating exchange rate, and the...

This paper reviews the relationship between the business cycle and public finances in Colombia. The evidence shows that cyclical movements in output systematically affect the situation of public finances. Hence, the distinction between the cyclical and permanent (i.e. structural) components of...

The objective of this paper is to analyze how international cycles affect the real GDPcycle and so monetary policy decisions in Colombia. We estimate that cycles in worldGDP, export prices and capital inflows are strongly associated with the Colombianbusiness cycle both on impact and even during...