The sudden collapse of oil prices poses a challenge to inflation targeting central banks in oil exporting economies. This paper illustrates that challenge and conducts a quantitative assessment of the impact of permanent changes in oil prices in a small and open economy, in which oil represents...

Using a three-equation New Keynesian model we find that incorporating an escape clause (EC) into Forward Guidance (FG) is welfare improving as it allows the monetary authority to avoid cases in which the cost of reduced flexibility is too high. The EC provides the central bank with another...

After decades using monetary aggregates as the main instrument of monetary policy and having different varieties of crawling peg exchange rate regimes, Colombia adopted a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime in 1999, with inflation as the nominal anchor, a floating exchange rate, and the...

En este artículo se propone un método numérico para la calibración de un modelode equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico (DSGE). Esencialmente, éste consisteen utilizar un algoritmo híbrido de optimización, primero para encontrar un estadoestacionario del modelo, y luego para...

If theory-consistent models can ever hope to forecast well and to be useful for policy, theyhave to relate to data which though rich in information is uncertain, unbalanced and sometimes forecastsfrom external sources about the future path of other variables. One example from many is financial...

Despite various payment innovations, today, cash is still heavily used to pay for low-value purchases. This paper develops a simulation model to test whether standard implications of the theory on cash management and payment choices can explain the use of payment instruments by transaction size....

Este documento analiza la eficiencia (técnica, de escala, de costos y asignativa) del sistema bancario colombiano entre 2000-2012, utilizando la metodología DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis). Ésta se basa en funciones de producción individuales de las entidades que componen el sistema,...

Despite foreign reserves´ strategic asset allocation relies mainly on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), the unique characteristics of central banks obliges them to articulate and reconcile typical optimization procedures with reserves´ management objectives such as providing confidence regarding...

There is now an impetus to apply dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models to forecasting. But thesemodels typically rely on purpose-built data, for example on tradable and nontradable sector outputs.How then do we know that the model will forecast well, in advance? We develop an early...

Many central banks, particularly in the developing world, aim for exchange rate stability as a macroeconomic goal. However, most are reluctant to relinquish monetary policy autonomy, so they end up operating through both interest rate and foreign exchange interventions. But the use of multiple...