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A maximum likelihood method for estimating the power-law exponent verifies that the positive and negative tails of the Colombian stock market index (IGBC) and the Colombian peso exchange rate (TRM) approximate a scale-free distribution, whereas none of the heavy tails of a local sovereign...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010764998
This paper evaluates the impact of Resolution CREG 051 on the performance of the electricity markets in Colombia. We found out that productive efficiency has improved since the introduction of the Resolution, that is, the total costs of producing electricity have been reduced. This shows a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010828161
Recientemente, las alteraciones de las condiciones climáticas, cada vez con mayor frecuencia e intensidad, vienen afectando la producción de alimentos en Colombia y en el resto del mundo, provocando por consiguiente una creciente volatilidad de los precios de los alimentos, la cual se suma al...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010885938
Durante los últimos dos años los bancos centrales que siguen el esquema de `inflación objetivo´ incumplieron sus metas. La causa no fue la insuficiencia o posibles yerros de la política monetaria, cuyos instrumentos están diseñados para responder a movimientos de la inflación originados...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005061456
A threefold analysis of commodity prices is carried out to observe their long-runbehaviour, their short-run properties and the main determinants. According to theevidence, the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis does not seem to be a property of mostprices. The cycles of commodity prices are asymmetric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768158
Typically, central banks use a variety of individual models (or a combination of models) when forecasting inflation rates. Most of these require excessive amounts of data, time, and computational power; all of which are scarce when monetary authorities meet to decide over policy interventions....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011078540
We study the effect of shocks to the United States government bonds term premium on Latin American government bonds term premia. For doing so, we compute dynamic multipliers. Our main findings indicate that Latin American countries’ term premia respond permanently to changes in United States...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011188612
En este trabajo realizamos pruebas de detección y migración de burbujas en los precios de vivienda, divisas y acciones para un conjunto de siete países. Este conjunto de países incluye desarrollados y emergentes que se caracterizan por tener buena información histórica de precios de...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010828168
Este trabajo evalúa si las transformaciones de potencia (Box-Cox y en particular logarítmica) de series de tiempo mejoran la precisión de los pronósticos de modelos ARIMA ajustados a variables económicas de Colombia en dos periodos diferentes: 1980-1995 y 2002-2012. Se compara la habilidad...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010828185
This paper investigates whether transforming the Consumer Price Index with a class of power transformations lead to an improvement of inflation forecasting accuracy. We use one of the prototypical models to forecast short run inflation which is known as the univariate time series ARIMA . This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010763657