This study proposes a new method for testing for the presence of momentum in nominal exchange rates, using a probabilistic approach. We illustrate our methodology estimating a binary response model using information on local currency / US dollar exchange rates of eight emerging economies. After...

This paper evaluates the effects of financial globalization on growth and macroeconomic volatility, from 1984 to 2003, for a sample of 43 countries. Particular attention is given to those effects on the member countries of the Latin American Reserve Fund (FLAR): Bolivia, Colombia, Costa Rica,...

This paper studies the behavior of the survival function of accruing loans during the slowdown experienced by the Colombian economy between January-2008 and March-2009 as documented by Alfonso et al. (2013). We use a dataset with information of different vintage loans between July-2007 and...

This paper presents an estimation of credit quality transition matrices for commercial banks inColombia, using a duration hazard function model, and following the methodology proposed byGómez-González et al (2009). Using a test developed by Weißbach et al (2005), we test for...

En este trabajo se presenta un modelo estadístico de alerta temprana, que utiliza modelos de duración para evaluar el estado corriente y pronosticar el estado futuro de la salud financiera de los bancos en Colombia. En el artículo se discuten las ventajas que tiene utilizar modelos de...

Se estima la elasticidad de las exportaciones y de las importaciones al crédito otorgado por la banca comercial usando información cruzada a nivel de firma en Colombia. Replicando la metodología empírica de Paravisini et. al (2011), se encontró que una reducción del crédito en 10% reduce...

Under the view that the market is a weighted and directed network (Barabási, 2003), this document is a first attempt to model the Colombian money market within a spatial econometrics framework. By estimating two standard spatial econometric models, we study the cost of collateralized borrowing...

The recent financial crisis has renewed the interest of economists, both at the theoretical and empirical level, in developing a better understanding of credit and its mechanisms. A rapidly growing strand of the literature views banks as facing funding restrictions that condition their borrowing...

We explore the performance of a set of early warning indicators for a group of Latin American economies under the endogenous cycle perspective. For this group of countries, the paper confirms the results of work on industrialized countries that a combination of asset prices and credit provides...

El presente trabajo da cuenta de las principales lecciones que se han recogido en materia de política monetaria y financiera sobre la crisis actual, y traza un paralelo con la crisis colombiana de los noventa (guardadas las proporciones) y con las acciones que de ella se derivaron. Además...