We embed a small open economy model for Colombia into the global risk model of Gómez-Pineda, Guillaume, and Tanyeri (2014). The small open economy model is estimated by Bayesian methods and used for analysis and projections. The model enable us to give a consistent treatment of shocks to global...

In this document we use the Expectations Survey conducted monthly by the Central Bank of Colombia during the period of October 2003 - August 2012. We find that exchange rate revaluations were generally followed by expectations of further revaluation in the short run (1 month), but by...

This paper provides evidence of long run purchasing power parity by performing a recently developed method to test for unit roots in the presence of structural breaks. Data consist of real exchange rate series for 20 countries including developed and developing economies. Structural breaks are...

The role of the exchange rate and the exchange rate regime in the monetary policy decision-making process in Colombia is described. The rationale for the intervention of the Central Bank in the FX market is explained and the experience in this regard is reviewed. Special attention is given to...

En este artículo estudiamos la estimación de un nivel de equilibrio de la cuenta corriente de la balanza de pagos de Colombia y sus posibles implicaciones para el desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio real. Se siguen dos metodologías alternativas para la estimación. Primero, se realiza una...

En los últimos años se ha desarrollado en la literatura internacional una corriente de estudio enfocada aexaminar los efectos del libre comercio sobre la inflación. Este trabajo pone a prueba la hipótesis de unaconexión entre el grado de apertura de la economía colombiana y su tasa de...

Empleando un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico para una economía pequeña y abierta con imperfecciones y rigideces en el sector no transable calibrado para Colombia, se estudia la conveniencia de que la autoridad monetaria fije como medida de inflación objetivo en su...

The sudden collapse of oil prices poses a challenge to inflation targeting central banks in oil exporting economies. This paper illustrates that challenge and conducts a quantitative assessment of the impact of permanent changes in oil prices in a small and open economy, in which oil represents...

Many central banks, particularly in the developing world, aim for exchange rate stability as a macroeconomic goal. However, most are reluctant to relinquish monetary policy autonomy, so they end up operating through both interest rate and foreign exchange interventions. But the use of multiple...

Conocer el grado de transmisión de los cambios en la tasa de cambio sobre la inflación interna es un interrogante constante de las autoridades monetarias de cualquier país. En este documento se reestima el grado de transmisión de corto y mediano plazo de las variaciones de la tasa de cambio...