La crisis de deuda en la Union Economica y Monetaria ha planteado la necesidad en muchos de sus paises miembros de abordar una consolidacion fiscal sin precedentes, no solo a corto sino tambien a largo plazo. Por esta razon se ha reavivado la urgente necesidad de acelerar en muchos casos las...

The debt crisis in the Economic and Monetary Union has revealed the need in many member countries to engage in an unprecedented fiscal consolidation process, not only in the short term, but also in the long term. Therefore, the urgent need to accelerate in many cases the reforms of their pension...

We propose a Markov-switching dynamic factor model to construct an index of global business cycle conditions, to perform short-term forecasts of world GDP quarterly growth in real time and to compute realtime business cycle probabilities. To overcome the real-time forecasting challenges, the...

In this paper, we propose a small-scale dynamic factor model for monitoring Argentine GDP in real time using economic data at mixed frequencies (monthly and quarterly). Our model not only produces a coincident index of the Argentine business cycle in striking accordance with professional...

This paper proposes two refinements to the single-index dynamic factor model developed by Aruoba and Diebold (AD, 2010) to monitor US economic activity in real time. First, we adapt the model to include survey data and financial indicators. Second, we examine the predictive performance of the...

This paper uses an extension of the Euro-Sting single-index dynamic factor model to construct short-term forecasts of quarterly GDP growth for the euro area, as also including financial variables as leading indicators. From a simulated real-time exercise, the model is used to investigate the...

The benefits implied by changing the growth model are at the heart ofthe heated political and economic debate in Spain. Increases in productivity and the reallocation of employment towards more innovative sectors are defended as the panacea for most of the ills afflicting the Spanish economy. In...