Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2013, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t-2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t through t+2. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions. That is, when our sentiment...

Financial frictions have become fundamental for studying the business cycle and credit market dynamics. This work adds to the existing literature by introducing a search and matching scheme in the financial market into a cash in advance New Keynesian DSGE theoretical model. We provide an...

The paper draws lessons from the experience of the past year for the conduct of central banks in the pursuit of macroeconomic and financial stability. Macroeconomic stability is defined as either price stability or as price stability and sustainable output or employment growth. Financial...

We provide a micro-based rationale for macroprudential capital regulation by developing a model in which bankers can privately undertake a costly effort and reduce the probability of adverse shocks to their asset holdings that force liquidation (deterioration risk). Low fundamental risk of...

This paper develops a methodology, based on Furfine (1999), for identifying unsecured interbank money market loans from the transaction data of the most important euro payment processing system TARGET2, for maturities ranging from one day (overnight) up to three months. The implementation has...

The recent crisis underlined that proper estimation of distress-dependence amongst banks in a global system is essential for financial stability assessment. We present a set of banking stability measures embedding banks’ linear (correlation) and nonlinear distress-dependence, and their changes...

This paper reviews the quantitative methods used at selected central banks to stress testing credit risk, focusing in particular on the methods used to link macroeconomic drivers of stress with bank specific measures of credit risk (macro stress test). Stress testing credit risk is an essential...

Firms with limited internal liquidity significantly increased prices in 2008, while their liquidity unconstrained counterparts slashed prices. Differences in the firms' price-setting behavior were concentrated in sectors likely characterized by customer markets. We develop a model, in which...

We use a macroeconomic euro area model with a bank sector to study the pro-cyclical effect of the capital regulation, focusing on the extra pro-cyclicality induced by Basel II over Basel I. Our results suggest that this incremental effect is modest. We also find that regulators could offset the...

We explore a view of the crisis as a shock to investor sentiment that led to the collapse of a bubble or pyramid scheme in financial markets. We embed this view in a standard model of the financial accelerator and explore its empirical and policy implications. In particular, we show how the...