Ratios of public debt as a share of GDP in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico were 10 percentage points higher on average during 1996-2002 than in the period 1990-1995. Costa Rica's debt ratio remained stable but at a high level near 50 percent. Is there reason to be concerned for the solvency of the...

How high can public debt rise without compromising fiscal solvency? We answer this question using a stochastic ability-to-pay model of sovereign default in which risk-neutral investors lend to a government that displays "fiscal fatigue," because its ability to increase primary balances cannot...

We contribute to the debate on the macroeconomic effects of fiscal stimuli by showing that the impact of government expenditure shocks depends crucially on key country characteristics, such as the level of development, exchange rate regime, openness to trade, and public indebtedness. Based on a...

Governments in emerging markets often behave like a "tormented insurer," trying to use non-state-contingent debt instruments to avoid cuts in payments to private agents despite large fluctuations in public revenues. In the data, average public debt-GDP ratios decline as the variability of...

An earlier paper by the author investigated the quantitative implications, for the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies, of a model treating the determination of long-term interest rates by explicitly imposing the market clearing equilibrium condition that the quantity of bonds issued...

Keynes's "Grandchildren" essay famously predicted both a rapid increase in productivity and a sharp shrinkage of the workweek - to fifteen hours - over the century from 1930. Keynes was right (so far) about output per capita, but wrong about the workweek. The key reason is that he failed to...