This paper presents first steps toward robust early-warning models. We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods. As early-warning models based upon one approach are oftentimes built in isolation of other methods, the exercise is of high...

This paper investigates leading indicators of systemic banking crises in a panel of 11 EU countries, with a particular focus on Finland. We use quarterly data from 1980Q1 to 2013Q2, in order to create a large number of macro-financial indicators, as well as their various transformations. We make...

This paper presents a general test of contagion in financial markets based on bivariate correlation analysis � a test that can be interpreted as an extension of the normal correlation theorem. Contagion is defined as a structural break in the data generating process of rates of return....

The prospective normalisation of monetary policies in the main OECD areas will be challenging given that current policy rates are likely to be significantly below neutral levels and that central bank balance sheets will be above the pre-crisis levels by a wide margin. Monetary policy...

The German banking system came under pressure during the financial crisis, not least due to its significant exposure to toxic assets which originated in the US. In the short run, the stability of the system has been achieved, in large part through substantial government support measures....

Even though the FX market is one of the most liquid financial market, it would be an error to consider that it is immune against any liquidity problem. This paper analyzes on a long sample (2000-2009), the all set of quotes and transactions in three main currency pairs (EURJPY, EURUSD, USDJPY)...

The paper is an empirical study on contagion during the 1997–1998 Asian crisis. In line with Sander and Kleimeier [Sander, H., Kleimeier, S., 2003. Contagion and causality: an empirical investigation of four Asian crisis episodes. International Financial Markets, Institution and Money 13,...

Making use of ten years of daily data, this paper examines whether banking sector co-movements be-tween the three largest Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) can be attributed to contagion or to interdependence. Our tests based on simple unadjusted correlation analysis uncover...

L'ouvrage présente une vision globale de la finance internationale. Avec les techniques financières, le marché des changes, la gestion des risques internationaux ou les places financières internationales.

La finalité de cet ouvrage est pédagogique. Il est destiné à faciliter l’acquisition des connaissances dans le domaine de la finance internationale et celui de la gestion des risques. Cette nouvelle édition, actualisée et rénovée, regroupe tous les thèmes importants de ces deux...