In this paper, using monetary policy rules, we build a model which describes the fixing of the interest rate by the Bank of Central African's States (BEAC). First, with a GMM adapted for a forward looking rule, we propose a reaction function for this central bank. The result shows that from 1986...

This paper assesses the ability of different models to forecast key real and nominal U.S. monthly macroeconomic variables in a data-rich environment and from the perspective of a real-time forecaster, i.e. taking into account the real-time data revisions process and data flow. We find that for...

In this paper we present a dynamic factor model that produces nowcasts and backcasts of Irish quarterly GDP using timely data from a panel dataset of 35 indicators. We apply a recently developed methodology, whereby numerous potentially useful indicator series for Irish GDP can be availed of in...

This paper performs a fully real-time nowcasting (forecasting) exercise of US real gross domestic product (GDP) growth using Giannone, Reichlin and Small (2008) factor model framework which enables one to handle unbalanced datasets as available in real-time. To this end, we have constructed a...