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The general concern on the environmental implications of the rising demand for coal registered in China during the last few years has induced considerable research effort to produce accurate forecasts of China’s energy requirements. Nevertheless, no previous study has modelled the coal demand...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004965192
This paper extends the Bayesian Model Averaging framework to panel data models where the lagged dependent variable as well as endogenous variables appear as regressors. We propose a Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging (LIBMA) methodology and then test it using simulated data. Simulation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009327870
This paper considers the estimation of binary choice panel data models with discrete endogenous regressors. We present a switching probit model which accounts for selectivity bias as well as for other forms of time invariant unobserved heterogeneity. Individual effects are allowed to be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005385429
Business investment is a very important variable for short- and medium-term economic analysis, but it is volatile and difficult to predict. Qualitative business survey data are widely used to provide indicators of economic activity ahead of the publication of official data. Traditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009386392
The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that … frequencies on a common sample and common data. Fourth, we evaluate the forecasting performance of each selected model using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009421234
We analyze the relationship between the prices of ethanol, agricultural commodities and livestock in Nebraska, the U.S. second largest ethanol producer. The paper focuses on long-run relations and Granger causality linkages between ethanol and the other commodities.The analysis takes possible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010633230
reverse yield gap, the credit quality spread) for fore-casting real economic activity and inflation in the euro area. A … quarterly Bayesian vector autoregression model is used to assess the marginal forecasting power of financial spreads for real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005111558
on the state of the Italian economy in the 1990s, taking as a benchmark the forecasting errors generated by the quarterly … forecasting errors in monetary and real variables, thereby taking into account links that may not be accounted for by the modelï …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005113577
that asymmetries show up in their unconditional distribution, as well as in their unconditional copula. The VaR forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005012145
different types of econometric models for oil price forecasting. Several specifications have been proposed in the economic …). The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that should … common sample and common data. Fourth, we evaluate the forecasting performance of each selected model using static and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423181