Showing 1 - 10 of 22
This paper studies the impact of demographic shifts, energy prices and climate factors on Italian households� energy budget. The pattern of energy expenditure of Italian households is studied using the Italian Household Budget Survey. The expenditure for heating, private transport and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009320178
It has increasingly become standard practice to supplement point macroeconomic forecasts with an appraisal of the degree of uncertainty and the prevailing direction of risks. Several alternative approaches have been proposed in the literature to compute the probability distribution of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008509919
In this paper we explore the performance of bridge and factor models in forecasting quarterly aggregates in the very short-term subject to a pre-selection of monthly indicators. Starting from a large information set, we select a subset of targeted predictors using data reduction techniques as in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009645792
Assessing the global economic outlook is a fundamentally important task of international financial institutions, governments and central banks. In this paper we focus on the consequences of the rapid growth of emerging markets for monitoring and forecasting the global outlook. Our main results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009654297
model linking individual investment realisations to investment intentions. The model generates a one-year-ahead forecast of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009386392
Building on the New Area Wide Model, we develop a 4-region macroeconomic model of the euro area and the world economy. The model (EAGLE, Euro Area and GLobal Economy model) is microfounded and designed for conducting quantitative policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence across regions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008605943
Recent empirical literature shows that key macro variables such as GDP and productivity display long memory dynamics. For DSGE models, we propose a �Generalized� Kalman Filter to deal effectively with this problem: our method connects to and innovates upon data-filtering techniques...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008626022
frequency models in a pseudo-real time experiment, also allowing for pooled forecast from factor models. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008835085
The available empirical evidence suggests that non-negligible differences in economic structures persist among euro area countries. Because of these asymmetries, an area-wide modelling approach is arguably less reliable, from a strictly statistical viewpoint, than a multi-country one. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005111550
This paper deals with the usefulness of several measures of financial spreads (the slope of the yield curve, the reverse yield gap, the credit quality spread) for fore-casting real economic activity and inflation in the euro area. A quarterly Bayesian vector autoregression model is used to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005111558