What role was played by the incomes policy launched in 1992-93? Part of a new “culture of stability” or factor distorting the adjustment process? This paper makes an initial evaluation of the effects of the reform of the wage-bargaining system on the link between wages and prices, on the...

This paper analyses the business cycle properties of 183 time series relevant to the Italian economy, including real, monetary and international variables. We propose new monthly coincident and leading composite indicators for the Italian business cycle; the leading indicator anticipates the...

This work provides an empirical analysis of the development of Italian provinces over the period 1952-1992, investigating the existence of convergence and/or divergence processes, identifying groups of provinces characterised by similar growth patterns and examining the role played by various...

Direct and country-specific measures of technical progress are used in order to analyse the effects of technology shocks on output fluctuations in the G7. Technology shocks are measured as the unpredicted component in the dynamics of innovation, on the basis of patent statistics provided by the...

The applied literature on adaptive learning has mostly focused on small, linear models, with homogenous expectations. In non-linear models heterogeneous expectations prevail and the process through which agents select (and change) a forecasting model becomes a necessary ingredient of the...

This paper briefly reviews the literature on fiscal multipliers and then presents results for the Italian economy obtained by simulating a dynamic general equilibrium model that allows for the possibility (a) that the zero lower bound may be binding and (b) that the initial public debt-to-GDP...

A prolonged period of low inflation, particularly in a situation of monetary policy rates near the zero lower bound, can heighten the risk of inflation expectations de-anchoring from the central bank objective. The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of a sequence of deflationary...

When the economy is subject to recurrent structural shifts, the monetary authority cannot credibly commit to a systematic approach to policy, since consistency between promises and actions is not easily verifiable; moreover, since agents have incomplete knowledge of the surrounding environment,...

The issue of appraising the transmission process through which monetary policy affects the economy is receiving wider and increasing attention. In Europe, much of the interest in the effects of monetary policy is arguably a reflection of the introduction of the single currency: to the extent...

We assess the long-term economic impact of the new regulatory standards (the Basel III reform), answering the following questions. (1) What is the impact of the reform on long-term economic performance? (2) What is the impact of the reform on economic fluctuations? (3) What is the impact of the...