level, after controlling for inflation expectations, and whether it is concentrated among those firms that are more exposed …

Between 2013 and 2014, following the recession triggered by the sovereign debt crisis, euro-area inflation decreased … sharply. Although a fall in the inflation rate was to be expected, given the severity of the recession, professional … inflation, which was unaccounted for in forecasting models. We probe this explanation in the context of a simple backward …

Since 2013 the inflation rate in the euro area has fallen steadily, reaching all-time lows at the end of 2014. Market …-based measures of inflation expectations (such as inflation swaps) have also declined to extremely low levels, which suggests … increasing concern about the credibility of the ECB in maintaining price stability. Inflation releases have often surprised …

, unlike the evidence reported in most of the literature, helpful at predicting inflation compared with simple benchmarks. We … good as the originals at tracking business cycle fluctuations; (iii) are more accurate as inflation predictors. …