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A generalization of the endogenous threshold model is developed by extending this class to a multivariate framework and to cases where the feedback acts at multiple lags. The feedback is specified, following Beaudry and Koop, by a variable which measures the depth of recessions. We give...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005113561
A generalization of the endogenous threshold model is developed by extending this class to multivariate framework and to cases where the feedback acts at multiple lags. The feedback is specified, following Beaudry and Koop, by a variable which measures the depth of recessions. We give conditions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005486720
Building on the New Area Wide Model, we develop a 4-region macroeconomic model of the euro area and the world economy. The model (EAGLE, Euro Area and GLobal Economy model) is microfounded and designed for conducting quantitative policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence across regions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008605943
Business investment is a very important variable for short- and medium-term economic analysis, but it is volatile and difficult to predict. Qualitative business survey data are widely used to provide indicators of economic activity ahead of the publication of official data. Traditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009386392
reverse yield gap, the credit quality spread) for fore-casting real economic activity and inflation in the euro area. A … quarterly Bayesian vector autoregression model is used to assess the marginal forecasting power of financial spreads for real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005111558
on the state of the Italian economy in the 1990s, taking as a benchmark the forecasting errors generated by the quarterly … forecasting errors in monetary and real variables, thereby taking into account links that may not be accounted for by the modelï …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005113577
The prominent role assigned to money by the ECB has been the subject of an intense debate because of the declining predictive power of the monetary aggregate M3 for inflation in recent years. This paper reassesses the information content of monetary analysis for future inflation using dynamic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004980170
This paper documents the existence of a significant forecast error on crude oil futures, particularly evident since the mid-1990s, which is negative on average and displays a non-trivial cyclical component (risk premium). We show that the forecast error on oil futures could have been explained...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005609334
empirical application for the Italian quarterly GDP the short-term forecasting performance is evaluated against other mixed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008835085
forecasting inflation, while the BVARX model fares better in forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011171339