This paper reviews the main literature and evidence on the relevance of fiscal dominance in Italy in the last part of the 20th century and examines the evolution of the techniques of Treasury financing and of monetary targets. In the early 1970s budget deficits and monetary base creation were...

We suggest the use of an index of Internet job-search intensity (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict the US monthly unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt our preferred leading indicator (GI), the more...

In this paper we develop a mixed frequency dynamic factor model featuring stochastic shifts in the volatility of both the latent common factor and the idiosyncratic components. We take a Bayesian perspective and derive a Gibbs sampler to obtain the posterior density of the model parameters. This...

We investigate the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and banks' balance sheets by referring to a modified version of the Bank of Italy Quarterly Model (BIQM), regularly used for forecasting and policy analysis. In particular, we examine how regulatory bank capital and private sector...

The world recession triggered by the financial crisis has impacted with extraordinary violence on economic activity in Italy.What has been the contribution of the various channels through which the crisis was transmitted to the Italian economy? What have been the effects stemming from the...

The crisis has shown that banks that are too big to fail are at the core of the international financial system. These institutions are thus at the centre of a powerful wave of re-regulation of the banking system. Overall, the proposals developed to strengthen the capacity of big banks to weather...

In this paper we investigate the link between government debt-to-GDP ratio and real per capita income growth in Italy over 1861-2009. We model our regression analysis on a standard production function. Our results support the hypotheses of a negative relation between public debt and growth and...

We use a dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area to study banks� possible responses to the stricter capital requirements called for by the Basel III reform package. We show that the effects on output depend, inter alia, on the strategy banks adopt in response to the reform, and...

We review the recent literature on macroprudential policy and its interaction with other policies, extracting several points. First, there are externalities in the financial sector, often in the form of excessive credit growth. Second, monetary policy needs to take financial stability into...

Risks are emerging in the real estate sector in Europe and the authorities have taken macroprudential measures to contain them. This paper reviews the main measures that have been or are being adopted in a number of European countries, and analyzes the main issues concerning the choice and the...