The paper examines the evolution of consumer confidence indices in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States of America since the 1970s, by modelling them in a multivariate framework of common macroeconomic variables for each country. Results...

In this paper, we exploit the heterogeneity in the forecasts obtained by estimating different factor models to measure forecast uncertainty. Our approach is simple and intuitive. It consists first in selecting all the models that outperform some benchmark model, and then in constructing an...

We model the determinants of loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area. Using the Johansen (1992) methodology, we identify three cointegrating relationships. These relationships are interpreted as the long-run loan demand, investment and loan supply equations. The short-run dynamics...

This paper investigates possible non-linearities in the response of bank lending to monetary policy shocks in the euro area. The credit market is modelled over the period 1985-2005 by means of an Asymmetric Vector Error Correction Model (AVECM) involving four endogenous variables (loans to the...

This paper evaluates the use of risk-neutral probability density functions implied in 3-month interest-rate futures options to assess market perceptions regarding future monetary policy moves options allow the information content implied in simpler derivatives to be extended by providing...

For a class of long memory volatility models, we establish the asymptotic distribution theory of the Gaussian estimator and the Lagrange multiplier test. Both the case of estimation of martingale difference and ARMA levels are considered. A Montecarlo exercise is presented to assess the small...

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effects of monetary policy shocks on stock market indices in the G-7 countries and Spain using the methodology of structural VARs. A model is estimated for each country and the effects of monetary policy shocks are evaluated by means of impulse...

In this paper, econometric techniques are employed to analyze the continuous and remarkable growth which has characterized international stock markets since 1995. The Campbell and Shiller dividend discount model, a dynamic version of Gordon's formula commonly employed by financial analysts to...

We use a no-arbitrage essentially affine three-factor model to estimate term premia in US and German ten-year government bond yields. In line with the existing literature, we find that estimated premia have followed a downward trend since the 1980s: from 4.9 per cent in 1981 to 0.7 per cent in...

We investigate the impact of long term investors' demand for UK index-linked gilts on the term structure of real rates for the 1987-2012 period. This is done by carrying out a structural estimation of the preferred-habitat model of Vayanos and Vila (2009). We use data on long-term investors'...