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economy where (i) private agents have incomplete information and form their expectations using recursive learning algorithms … of stability of the equilibrium and speed of convergence of the learning process. In particular, while the publication of … stabilize expectations and to speed up the learning process the response of the policy instrument to inflation should be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008764925
of this announcement on private expectations about future short term interest rates. The communication of policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008459742
We analyse a simplified New-Keynesian model with an unobserved aggregate cost-push shock in which firms and the central bank have different information about the shock. We consider a linear policy rule where a pure inflation targeting central bank decides how much to react to the shock given its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099675
private agents' learning process, determines the speed at which the economy converges to the rational expectation equilibrium …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005770763
This paper examines the velocity and asymmetry in the response of bank interest rates to monetary policy shocks. Using an Asymmetric Vector Error Correction Model (AVECM), it analyses the pass-through of changes in the money market rates to retail bank interest rates in Italy in the period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005113657
the agency's disposal. The paper characterizes the optimal public communication plan and shows that full transparency … communication, the amount of delay depending on the precision of private information and the size of the agency's measurement error … the welfare of the agents, it also decreases the informational content of their actions, hampering the agency's learning …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009654300
The prices of futures contracts on short-term interest rates are commonly used by central banks to gauge market expectations concerning monetary policy decisions. Excess returns - the difference between futures rates and the realized rates - are positive, on average, and statistically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005609342
We explain why the macroeconomic effects of shocks to inflation of the same size, but opposite sign, are not necessarily symmetric. All in all, the costs of deflation and disinflation tend to exceed those of inflation due to the presence of constraints in the economy, namely the zero lower bound...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011265438
The flattening of the Phillips curve observed in the industrial countries has been attributed to globalisation, while the traditional explanation centres on monetary policy credibility. The empirical literature is not conclusive, since macroeconomic data are affected by substantial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005770766
An important concern for the European Central Bank (ECB), and all central banks alike, is the necessity of making decisions in real time under conditions of great uncertainty about the underlying state of the economy. We address this concern by estimating on real-time data a New Keynesian model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008917790