In this paper we show that long-run expectations about future housing prices of both households and, especially, financial intermediaries had a large impact on households' indebtedness during the recent boom in U.S. housing prices. We introduce the theory of natural expectations in a...

Particularly in the 1990s economists in America have been surprised by how good or how lucky has been our macro performance compared to our peers abroad. We pinch ourselves and ask: "What went right?" And, by implication, authorities in Europe must be looking in their mirror and wondering:...

Unit roots in output, an exponential 2 per cent rate of convergence and no change in the underlying dynamics of output seem to be three stylized facts that cannot go together. This paper extends the Solow-Swan growth model allowing for cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this framework, aggregate...

Unit roots in output, an exponential 2 per cent rate of convergence and no change in the underlying dynamics of output seem to be three stylized facts that cannot go together. This paper extends the Solow-Swan growth model allowing for cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this framework, aggregate...

This paper investigates the relationship between futures prices and financial investments in derivatives of the main agricultural commodities. We first provide a broad picture of how these markets function and how they have evolved, showing that traders who deal mostly in commodity index...

This paper extends some theoretical results of Morris and Shin (1998) concerning the role of uncertainty about fundamentals in currency crises and tests their empirical relevance using a novel approach based on the distribution of survey expectations. Econometric evidence from the Asian crisis...

When the economy is subject to recurrent structural shifts, the monetary authority cannot credibly commit to a systematic approach to policy, since consistency between promises and actions is not easily verifiable; moreover, since agents have incomplete knowledge of the surrounding environment,...

We study an endowment economy with complete markets and heterogeneous agents who do not have rational expectations, but form their beliefs using adaptive learning algorithms that may differ from one individual to another. We show that market completeness allows agents to smooth consumption...

The applied literature on adaptive learning has mostly focused on small, linear models, with homogenous expectations. In non-linear models heterogeneous expectations prevail and the process through which agents select (and change) a forecasting model becomes a necessary ingredient of the...

This publication collects the papers presented at the workshop entitled "The sovereign debt crisis and the euro area", held at the Bank of Italy in Rome on 15 February 2013. In recent years the Economic Research and International Relations Area of the Bank of Italy has conducted several analyses...