The retail cross-border payments market is valued at more than $800 billion of transactions per year, and is growing. Despite this, retail cross-border transactions lag domestic ones in terms of cost, speed, access and transparency because of the complex processes they involve. This complexity...

In this paper, we exploit the heterogeneity in the forecasts obtained by estimating different factor models to measure forecast uncertainty. Our approach is simple and intuitive. It consists first in selecting all the models that outperform some benchmark model, and then in constructing an...