Business investment is a very important variable for short- and medium-term economic analysis, but it is volatile and difficult to predict. Qualitative business survey data are widely used to provide indicators of economic activity ahead of the publication of official data. Traditional...

This paper proposes a Bayesian regression model with time-varying coefficients (TVC) that makes it possible to estimate jointly the degree of instability and the time-path of regression coefficients. Thanks to its computational tractability, the model proves suitable to perform the first (to our...

A standard model-based trend-cycle decomposition of Italian GDP yields a likelihood function that is relatively flat and has two local maxima. A Bayesian estimation of the model identifies output gap and trend components that match the features of the Italian business cycle well. In a bivariate...

This paper analyses the monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area through the use of large scale macroeconomic models at the disposal of the European Central Bank and the National Central Banks of the Eurosystem. The results reported are based on a carefully designed common simulation...

In this paper we build a measure of potential private-sector value added for the Italian economy that is consistent with the capital accumulation process in the Banca d'Italia's Quarterly Model -and more generally with the rest of the supply-side block of that model.

The financial crisis that began in 2007 has revealed a need for a new supervisory and regulatory approach aimed at strengthening the system and containing the risk of future financial and economic disruptions. Three ingredients are needed to ensure financial stability: robust analysis, better...

The paper describes the characteristics of the market for private placements and discusses the necessary conditions for their uptake in Europe. A private placement is a method of financing used mainly by medium-sized companies which, unable to access the public bond market, turn to one or more...

We examine the effects of the government guarantee schemes for bank bonds adopted in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers demise to help banks retain access to wholesale funding. We describe the evolution and the pattern of bond issuance across countries to assess the effect of the schemes. Then...

This work investigates the role of equity ownership for the purpose of committing the management to the pursuit of shareholder value in the presence of separation between ownership and control. By rooting the conflicts of interests between managers and shareholders upon the control of internal...

This paper analyzes the relations between businesses seized from organized crime and the banking system. The first part of the paper examines legislative developments regarding seized and confiscated assets and highlights the persistence of problem areas despite the efforts to create a...