What kind of information do stock prices offer for predicting velocity? This paper develops previous work by Milton Friedman for the US economy and shows that a wealth effect derived from the stock market has negatively influenced the ratio of nominal income to a broad definition of money in a...

This paper studies the effect of correlation in the retional beliefs of agents on the volatility of asset prices.

We examine the equity premium pizzle with the prespective of the theory of Rational Beliefs Equilibrium (RBE) and show that from the perspective of this theory there is no puzzle.

Estimates of the real term structure for the euro area implied by French index-linked bonds are obtained by means of a smoothing spline methodology. The real term structure allows computation of the constant-maturity inflation compensation, which is compared with the surveyed inflation...

This paper uses the celebrated no-arbitrage affine Gaussian term structure model applied to index-linked and standard government bonds to derive expected inflation rates and inflation risk premia, in the euro area and in the US. Maximum likelihood estimates show that the model describes the...

A striking feature of financial market behaviour in recent years has been the low level of price volatility over a wide range of financial assets and markets. The issue has attracted the attention of central bankers and financial regulators due to the potential implications for financial...

This paper presents a unified framework to highlight possible channels for the international transmission of financial shocks. We first review the different definitions and measures of contagion used in the literature. We then use a simple multi-country asset pricing model to cast the main...

This paper discusses the limitations of the price-income ratio, the price-rent ratio, and of affordability measures as indicators of housing market conditions. For the purpose of assessing whether house prices are misaligned, the most sensible approach is to calculate the user cost of ownership...