A great deal of new quantitative research has been produced over the last three decades which has radically changed the received interpretation of Italian economic development. Against this backdrop, the Bank of Italy, Istat and the University of Rome "Tor Vergata", together with academics from...

This paper presents the new yearly series of the value-added of services for Italy, from 1861 to 1951, at current prices. For each sector, after discussing sources and methodology, the results are compared with the early Istat (1957) series. By looking at the production value of specific...

The research presented here is part of a wider project of revision of historical national accounts in Italy between 1891 and 1970. The reconstruction for 1951-1970 relies on a previous estimate of inter-sectoral (input-output) matrix for 1951 and on a new estimate of inter-sectoral matrix for...

In this paper we investigate the main features of the Italian financial cycle, extracted by means of a structural trend-cycle decomposition of the credit-to-GDP ratio, using annual observations from 1861 to 2011. In order to draw conclusions based on solid historical data, we provide a thorough...

Building on a new dataset on Italian banks and other financial institutions from 1861 to 2011, the novelty of this paper is to examine the patterns of the main items of bank's balance sheets, such as deposits, capital and reserves, bonds issued, bonds held in portfolio, and loans for a period of...

We model the determinants of loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area. Using the Johansen (1992) methodology, we identify three cointegrating relationships. These relationships are interpreted as the long-run loan demand, investment and loan supply equations. The short-run dynamics...

Recent empirical literature shows that key macro variables such as GDP and productivity display long memory dynamics. For DSGE models, we propose a �Generalized� Kalman Filter to deal effectively with this problem: our method connects to and innovates upon data-filtering techniques...

This paper investigates possible non-linearities in the response of bank lending to monetary policy shocks in the euro area. The credit market is modelled over the period 1985-2005 by means of an Asymmetric Vector Error Correction Model (AVECM) involving four endogenous variables (loans to the...

This paper presents ideas and methods underlying the construction of an indicator that tracks the euro area GDP growth, but, unlike GDP growth, (i) is updated monthly and almost in real time; (ii) is free from hort-run dynamics. Removal of short-run dynamics from a time series, to isolate the...

The paper examines the evolution of consumer confidence indices in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States of America since the 1970s, by modelling them in a multivariate framework of common macroeconomic variables for each country. Results...