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Is deflation good or bad? Just mind the inflation gap
Casiraghi, Marco; Ferrero, Giuseppe - Banca d'Italia - 2015
We explain why the macroeconomic effects of shocks to inflation of the same size, but opposite sign, are not necessarily symmetric. All in all, the costs of deflation and disinflation tend to exceed those of inflation due to the presence of constraints in the economy, namely the zero lower bound...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011265438
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Has globalisation changed the Phillips curve? Firm-level evidence on the effect of activity on prices
Gaiotti, Eugenio - Banca d'Italia - 2008
the traditional explanation centres on monetary policy credibility. The empirical literature is not conclusive, since … level, after controlling for inflation expectations, and whether it is concentrated among those firms that are more exposed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005770766
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Imperfect information, real-time data and monetary policy in the euro area
Neri, Stefano; Ropele, Tiziano - Banca d'Italia - 2011
An important concern for the European Central Bank (ECB), and all central banks alike, is the necessity of making decisions in real time under conditions of great uncertainty about the underlying state of the economy. We address this concern by estimating on real-time data a New Keynesian model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008917790
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Central banks' macroeconomic projections and learning
Ferrero, Giuseppe; Secchi, Alessandro - Banca d'Italia - 2010
economy where (i) private agents have incomplete information and form their expectations using recursive learning algorithms … their target level; and (iii) the central bank, ignoring the exact mechanism used by private agents to form expectations … stabilize expectations and to speed up the learning process the response of the policy instrument to inflation should be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008764925
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The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: has it changed and why?
Cecioni, Martina; Neri, Stefano - Banca d'Italia - 2011
Based on a structural VAR and a dynamic general equilibrium model, we provide evidence of the changes in the monetary transmission mechanism (MTM) in the European Monetary Union after the adoption of the common currency in 1999. The estimation of a Bayesian VAR over the periods before and after...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009020152
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The impact of unconventional monetary policy on the Italian economy during the sovereign debt crisis
Casiraghi, Marco; Gaiotti, Eugenio; Rodano, Lisa; … - Banca d'Italia - 2013
We assess the impact on the Italian economy of the main unconventional monetary policies adopted by the ECB in 2011-2012 (SMP, 3-year LTROs and OMTs) by following a two-step approach. We evaluate their effects on money market interest rates, government bond yields and credit availability and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099600
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Informational Effects of Monetary Policy
Ferrero, Giuseppe; Miccoli, Marcello; Santoro, Sergio - Banca d'Italia - 2014
We analyse a simplified New-Keynesian model with an unobserved aggregate cost-push shock in which firms and the central bank have different information about the shock. We consider a linear policy rule where a pure inflation targeting central bank decides how much to react to the shock given its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099675
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Monetary policy and fiscal dominance in Italy from the early 1970s to the adoption of the euro: a review
Gaiotti, Eugenio; Secchi, Alessandro - Banca d'Italia - 2012
This paper reviews the main literature and evidence on the relevance of fiscal dominance in Italy in the last part of the 20th century and examines the evolution of the techniques of Treasury financing and of monetary targets. In the early 1970s budget deficits and monetary base creation were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011100342
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The Announcement of Monetary Policy Intentions
Ferrero, Giuseppe; Secchi, Alessandro - Banca d'Italia - 2009
is an unresolved issue. Disclosing this information might allow a more precise control of market expectations and a more … nature of this forecast, it could also undermine the credibility of the central bank. We provide new evidence on the effects … of this announcement on private expectations about future short term interest rates. The communication of policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008459742
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Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?
Rudebusch, G.D. - Banca d'Italia - 1996
In many VARs, monetary policy shocks are identified with the least squares residuals from a regression of the federal funds rate on an assortment of variables. Such regressions appear to be structurally fragile and are at odds with other evidence on the nature of the Fed's reaction function;...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005780700