Between 2013 and 2014, following the recession triggered by the sovereign debt crisis, euro-area inflation decreased … sharply. Although a fall in the inflation rate was to be expected, given the severity of the recession, professional … inflation, which was unaccounted for in forecasting models. We probe this explanation in the context of a simple backward …

the Phillips curve's ability to explain inflation dynamics over a wide variety of circumstances, over the 150 years of the … country's history. In Italy, the relation linking inflation with the cyclical situation in the economy emerged only after …

promptly identifying turning points in inflation. The focus of this paper is the so-called "cost-of-living" index, the most … used measure of Italian inflation. Our aim is to identify and test a model of its seasonal component, which is important in …

, unlike the evidence reported in most of the literature, helpful at predicting inflation compared with simple benchmarks. We … good as the originals at tracking business cycle fluctuations; (iii) are more accurate as inflation predictors. …

This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of a protracted period of low and falling inflation rates when monetary … terms (debt-deflation channel). In this scenario, even cost-push shocks that in normal circumstances would reduce inflation …

responses of output and inflation to monetary policy shocks between the two periods. The estimation of a DSGE model with several … economy as the result of a decrease in the degree of nominal rigidities and a shift in monetary policy towards inflation …

The paper assesses the performance of medium-term forecasts of euro-area GDP and inflation obtained with a DSGE model … forecasting inflation, while the BVARX model fares better in forecasting …