The volume collects the essays presented at the 15th Workshop on Public Finance organised by Banca d'Italia in Perugia from 4 to 6 April 2013. The workshop focused on the link between fiscal policy and macroeconomic imbalances and comprised four sessions. The first session concentrated on the...

Based on a structural VAR and a dynamic general equilibrium model, we provide evidence of the changes in the monetary transmission mechanism (MTM) in the European Monetary Union after the adoption of the common currency in 1999. The estimation of a Bayesian VAR over the periods before and after...

The paper examines the evolution of consumer and business confidence indexes in France, Germany and Italy since the mid-eighties, using regressions of the indexes on a set of common macroeconomic variables for each country. Comparison of the results across agents (i.e. consumers and...

We present tools for real-time detection of turning points in the industrial production growth-cycle of the euro area and its four largest economies. In particular, we apply a multivariate hidden Markov model to national survey results � i.e. to the earliest information about current...

This paper reviews the quantitative methods used at selected central banks to stress testing credit risk, focusing in particular on the methods used to link macroeconomic drivers of stress with bank specific measures of credit risk (macro stress test). Stress testing credit risk is an essential...

We derive a measure of technological change using firm-level panel data and controlling for imperfect competition, increasing returns and unobserved factor utilization. We show that the latter variable accounts for a relevant portion of the cyclicality of the Solow residual. Our key finding is...

The paper studies the transmission of monetary policy shocks in Italy, by means of a structural VAR, using a long data sample; focusing on a long sample period permits a comparison between the Italian evidence and the international literature and makes it possible to test the robustness of the...

We develop a model which accounts for the observed equity premium and average risk free rate, without implying counterfactually high risk aversion. The model also does well in accounting for business cycle phenomena.